Oktubre 17, 2026
How to Count Cards in Blackjack: Hi-Lo and the True Count
How to count cards in blackjack with Hi-Lo: card values, running and true count, betting spreads, what a count is worth per hour, and where it can't work.
Card counting is really just bookkeeping. As the cards come out you keep a rough tally of high cards against low ones, and when the cards left in the shoe are heavy with tens and aces, the odds lean a little your way. That's when you bet more. The rest of the time you bet as little as the table lets you.
That's genuinely it. What's hard is keeping the count straight at table speed, and then sitting through the swings. Below is Hi-Lo, the system most counters learn first, one step at a time, and then the maths on what it's really worth.
Why the remaining cards matter
Tens and aces are on your side. A blackjack pays you 3 to 2, but when the dealer gets one, you only lose your bet. They also make your doubles land, and they bust a dealer who has to keep drawing on 12 to 16. Small cards work the other way: a dealer's 13 turns into 19 with a six, and your double on 11 picks up a 2.
Fresh shuffle, balanced shoe, normal house edge. Deal off a run of small cards, though, and what's left leans toward tens and aces. For a while, the shoe is better for you than average.
The Hi-Lo card values
Low cards, 2 through 6: plus 1 each. Every one that's gone is one the dealer can't use.
Middle cards, 7 through 9: zero. Let them go by.
Tens, picture cards and aces: minus 1 each. Each one dealt is one fewer for you.
A full deck adds up to zero: 20 low cards against 20 high ones, with 12 neutral cards in between. That's what makes Hi-Lo a balanced count, and it hands you a free self-test. Shuffle a deck at the kitchen table, count it down, and if you don't finish on zero, you slipped somewhere.
Running count to true count
Your running count is just the tally so far. The trouble is that plus 6 with five decks to go is barely anything, while plus 6 with one deck left is a big deal. So you turn it into a true count, dividing by the number of decks still to come.
Running count plus 6, roughly three decks still in the shoe: true count plus 2. Same plus 6, but only a deck and a half left? Now it's plus 4, and the shoe is a lot richer.
Nobody counts the discards card by card. You glance at the tray, guess to the nearest half deck, and get on with it. Being consistent matters more than being exact.
What a point of true count is worth
Rule of thumb for Hi-Lo: each point of true count is worth roughly half a percent to the player. A typical six-deck game starts with the house slightly ahead, so you don't actually have the edge until the true count gets past about plus 1, and even at plus 3 it's only around one percent.
That's the part the films leave out. A hot shoe gives you a small edge, on a small share of the hands.
Betting the count
The edge only turns up now and then, so all the profit comes from betting bigger at those moments. Here's a simple spread, where one unit is your normal bet:
Plus 1 or lower: one unit, the table minimum. The house is still ahead here.
Plus 2: two units, now that the shoe has just tipped your way.
Plus 3: four units.
Plus 4 and above: eight units, if the table maximum lets you.
Going from one unit to eight is exactly what casinos watch for. It's why serious counters put as much work into hiding their bets as into the counting itself.
Penetration decides whether any of it works
Watch where the dealer puts the cut card. That's penetration: how far into the shoe they'll go before reshuffling. Deeper is better, because a true count only gets big when there are few decks left to divide by. Deal a six-deck shoe to around 75% and a counter has something to work with. Cut it at halfway and there's very little.
And that's the quiet reason counting is so hard online. Live dealer tables tend to shuffle early, and digital tables build a fresh virtual shoe for every hand. Our own Blackjack deals from an infinite shoe, where every card is a new draw from a full deck, so the true count is zero on every hand by design. We've covered why online tables beat counters in our bitcoin blackjack guide; short version, the cards have no memory to count.
The hourly maths
Let's be generous. You average $10 a hand, play 100 hands an hour, and somehow hold a 1% edge on every one of them, which even a good counter won't. Expected profit: $10 an hour.
Now the bad news. One hand of blackjack has a standard deviation of about 1.15 bets. Over 100 hands at $10, that works out to 1.15 times $10 times 10, the square root of 100: about $115 for the hour. So you're grinding for an expected $10 while a perfectly normal hour can finish a hundred dollars either side of zero. It takes hundreds of hours for the edge to show through that noise, and a decent bankroll to survive them.
What actually lowers the house edge online
Basic strategy. Played perfectly, our Blackjack returns 99.43%, so the house keeps about 57 cents per $100 wagered. Splitting the right pairs is a real part of that, and our guide to when to split in blackjack goes through every pair against every dealer card. Skip insurance, stick to tables that pay 3 to 2, and you've done most of what the maths allows.
Prefer a game where the edge is printed on the screen? Our bitcoin dice game shows its 2% right in the multiplier.
Common questions
How do you count cards in blackjack?
The usual way is Hi-Lo. Low cards from 2 to 6 are plus 1, 7s to 9s don't count, and tens, picture cards and aces are minus 1. Divide your running total by the decks you think are left, and raise your bet when that number climbs.
What is a good true count in blackjack?
In a typical six-deck game, anything above about plus 1 favours the player, and each extra point is worth roughly another half a percent. Counters save their biggest bets for plus 4 and up.
How much can a card counter win?
Less per hour than most people think. At $10 average bets, 100 hands an hour and a 1% edge, you're looking at about $10 an hour, with swings of around $115 an hour either way.
Does card counting work online?
Not on digital or infinite-shoe tables, where every hand starts from a full deck. Our in-house Blackjack deals from an infinite shoe, so the count never moves.